UK Warning to Arabian Sea Ships is a Proper Red Flag

Netanyahu's willingness to wage war alone should not be underestimated.

The UK ship warning yesterday is a proper red flag to my usually dismissive eye. In isolation, U.S. Embassy personnel could’ve been moved for a number of plausible reasons due to unspecified classified threats, but to my knowledge, no such evacuations took place in light of the Houthi threat. Thus the combination of a maritime warning in the Red Sea and a region-wide shift in non-essential personnel policy is very unusual and hard to dismiss as Iran fits both bills well.

Given reports in Israeli media that Mr. Trump has asked his counterpart to stand down on attacking Iran, and given that the U.S. has reportedly not returned its B-2 stealth bombers to Diego Garcia (there as recently as a month ago), a disquietingly plausible explanation is concern about a unilateral Israeli attack.

The US may be able to credibly say to Iran at this point, “We tried to stop them. Don’t attack our forces and interests or we will retaliate aggressively”, but that decision clearly lies with Tehran, not Washington. Attacking U.S. bases and inviting retaliation doesn’t seem like a particularly advantageous risk/reward. Then again, they have their own scores to settle. As a prospective deal with the U.S. is pretty clearly failing, the sanctions likely aren’t coming off. Perhaps they decide to reset the table and try again later for sanctions relief. Such is the nature of tri-party speculation.

The only decision maker of consequence at this juncture, though, would seem to be Mr. Netanyahu. He is certainly his own man. He needs war and wants war. After so many months and so many bombs, there’s little left standing in Gaza, frankly, for him to attack. His cabinet is now under sanctions in Europe. There’s an ICC warrant out for his arrest. Mr. Trump has now acknowledged the Iran deal is effectively dead. At best, the Iranians will play for more time. And having already destroyed Iran’s air defenses, Israel has its window now. Time only means Iran has a chance to restore and improve its air defenses. Meanwhile, Mr. Netanyahu is under siege at home and increasingly isolated abroad, including from the U.S., if reports are to be believed.

Backed into a corner facing an existential threat is not the place to expect anybody to remain calm and patient indefinitely. And nothing changes a narrative so swiftly and effectively as war. I think it’s worth asking here, what would you do?

The only real limiting factor I am aware of (and I may well be wrong) is capability-related. As I understand it, the IDF has the GBU-31 and GBU-28 (2,000 lb and 4,000lb “bunker busters”) and can only deliver up to 5,000 lb bombs with the aircraft available to them. Israel does not have the U.S.’s GBU-57 (30,000 lb variant) or crucially, the ability to deliver something that heavy in its place.

For context, we drop 2,000 lb bombs on surface targets and some vulnerable underground targets. 4,000 lbs gets a bit deeper. But against a target as hardened as Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel’s bombs are not the right tools to pick those particular locks.

This assumes that Israel doesn’t have a classified, sneaky-bastard option they’ve been holding in reserve. That’s impossible to know (and they are certainly not to be underestimated). But physics is awfully hard to beat. Weight and mass matter a great deal for busting through reinforced concrete and rock. Velocity counts too.

I’ve been therefore very dismissive, frankly, of the idea that Israel would go it alone. But when you’re down to only one option, it has a tendency to start looking like the best option. I would add there were no particularly unusual warning signs until now. Israel has been “preparing to strike Iran”, as CNN reported some weeks ago, for at least as long as Iran has been “weeks away from a nuclear breakout”, which is to say the better part of the last two decades. There are proper warning signs now, however.

As a final factor I believe is worth considering, Iran’s Defense Minister threatened US bases again yesterday, seemingly even in the context of an Israeli attack. If Mr. Netanyahu is calculating that the U.S. gets drawn in - even against its will - or has some credible intelligence that this will indeed be Iran’s intended response, perhaps they roll the dice. No doubt either way that the Israeli government wants the war. And they’re fit to fight it, at least a version of it.

While other leaders, including President Trump, may not want war for themselves, it is also true that nobody in the West (or the region) wants Iran to have the bomb either. The inane TACO talk of late makes U.S. involvement in a war more likely now, not less. Netanyahu knows that too.

In any event, I’m not shrugging off the idea of a unilateral attack anymore at this point. If others have a different take or if I’ve missed an important detail worth considering, please share those thoughts.